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Amun Re Leagues - Scoring System
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Gaditus



Joined: 05 Feb 07
Posts: 1924

Location: Canterbury, UK

PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 8:31 am    Post subject: Amun Re Leagues - Scoring System Reply with quote

As mentioned in the recent draws I intend to use a new method to decide promotions/relegations for the 3 and 5 player leagues in future.

There will be two benefits to this. Firstly, players who sit out for a season or two will retain some of their 'points' and thus will return in roughly the same division as they left. Secondly, the results of games that have not been completed by the time set for the new season can be allowed for in players' scores and will therefore count toward placings in subsequent seasons.

Points will be awarded for positions in games:

5 Player 1st:20 2nd:4 3rd:-4 4th:-8 5th:-12
4 Player 1st:12 2nd:0 3rd:-4 4th:-8
3 Player 1st:12 2nd:-3 3rd:-9

Points for ties (after allowing for pyramids/stones) will be shared between the tied players. Eg both players tied for 3rd/4th in a 5 player game will receive -6 points.

These points are weighted toward winning games (ie the difference between finishing first/second is more than between minor places).

Points will also be awarded for finishing first in a division. The number of points awarded will be equal to the number of players in that division.

Positions within the division will be based on the current method (# of 1sts, 2nds etc), but 'points lost by' will only be used to break ties in the first place in the division. If points lost by are equal, then divisional bonus points will be shared (and both players will be awarded an 'x').

For the first season this method applies, (ie season 4 of the 5 player league and season 7 of the 3 player league) players will be given a starting number of points. These points will be 20 x (number of divisions below the division the player is in). The effect of this will be to help players maintain their current divisions (ie prevent large swings in divisions) as the new scoring system kicks in.

(Players who have dropped out in the current season will be awarded points based on the division they would have been in, and where games are outstanding players will be awarded points based on the divisions they would have been in allowing for those results.)

The divisions for the following season will be decided by ranking players in line with their points (and a random element to break ties). The points will be carried forward to future seasons but will be reduced by 20% so that more recent results will have more weight.

As I mentioned before, the aim is still the same, to win as many games as possible, and if you cannot win, finish in the highest place possible.

For the avoidance of doubt, points will not be awarded for the 3 player cup games - the only reward for these is a 'Z'!

Edit - for cosmetic reasons 500 points will be added to everyones score. It will not make any difference to relative positions - it just makes my tables line up!


Last edited by Gaditus on Sun Aug 02, 2009 3:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Knave



Joined: 28 Jun 08
Posts: 258


PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:21 pm    Post subject: Re: Amun Re Leagues - Scoring System Reply with quote

Gaditus wrote:

5 Player 1st:20 2nd:4 3rd:-4 4th:-8 5th:-12


There is a large jump from 2nd to 3rd, and then small jumps to 4th and to 5th. A moderately better distribution would be:

1st: 20
2nd: 3
3rd: -3
4th: -8
5th:-12

This makes the jumps (after first) 6,5,4

Alternatively...

1st: 24
2nd: 3
3rd: -3
4th: -9
5th: -15

or

1st: 20
2nd: 1
3rd: -3
4th: -7
5th: -11

I like the last one the best. It keeps the points differential between 2nd and 5th close, while still allowing a big jump for winning the game. It also keeps the max at 20, which you seem to like.

Of course, I'm not even in the 5 player tourney, so I have little cause to complain, but I am intrigued by the math nonetheless!
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mdp



Joined: 14 Nov 05
Posts: 22

Location: Wichita

PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've run many tournaments (of different games) and have settled on using a trianglular scoring system (this would be especially appropriate for Amun-Re).

1st - 15 pts
2nd - 10 pts
3rd - 6 pts
4th - 3 pts
5th - 1 pt

One thing that a scoring system should do is avoid unnecessary ties. For example, a player finishing 1st and 5th in my system would score 16 pts and a player who finished 2nd twice would score 20 pts. In your system a player who finished 1st and 5th would score 8 pts (20 - 12), and a player who finished 2nd twice would score 8 pts (4 + 4). They are tied (there are other positions that will end up tied in your system also. Look at 3rd-5th vs. 4th-4th). In the triangular system ties will only happen when players have the exact same finishes (as it should be). You can debate whether 1st-5th is better or worse than 2nd-2nd. Personally, I'm satisfied with 2nd-2nd getting more points in that situation.

Another thing to consider is that the absolute value of the points awarded is irrelevant. It's only the difference between finish positions that matters. The scale is arbitrary. For that reason, I dislike using negative points. I think it's bad for morale. I like to award positive points to everybody, even if only 1 point for last place. Therefore, your scale is equivalent to:

1st - 33 pts
2nd - 17 pts
3rd - 9 pts
4th - 5 pts
5th - 1 pt

Which I would recommend (except for the fact of it setting up more ties). Keeping everything positive seems to work better for your 20% decay rate anyway. I'm not sure if you intended this, but a player with a negative score will actually improve by sitting out a season.
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smlait



Joined: 16 Jul 06
Posts: 392

Location: alberta, canada

PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like your triangular scoring system (though I am happy for Gaditus to use any scoring system he likes).

I think the point of the negative scores is to not overly penalize players doing well whose games don't finish on time due to slow opponents. Someone who wins three games and has two left unfinished at scoring time should do better than someone who comes in third in all five games (but they all finish on time). This has been an issue in past seasons and I believe that's why there's a points-based scoring system at all.
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mdp



Joined: 14 Nov 05
Posts: 22

Location: Wichita

PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

smlait wrote:

I think the point of the negative scores is to not overly penalize players doing well whose games don't finish on time due to slow opponents. Someone who wins three games and has two left unfinished at scoring time should do better than someone who comes in third in all five games (but they all finish on time). This has been an issue in past seasons and I believe that's why there's a points-based scoring system at all.


This effect can be achieved in any scoring system simply by giving the players the "expected score" for each unfinished game. You don't need to set it up such that the expected score is 0. In the triangular system there are 35 points awarded for each game divided by 5 players, which means over a long term you would "expect" to average 7 points per game. Another way to look at it is that, all things being equal, you have a one in five chance of finishing in any position, therefore your expected score is 1/5*15 + 1/5*10 + 1/5*6 + 1/5*3 + 1/5*1 = 7.

Giving each player 7 points for an unfinished game in the triangular system is exactly equivalent to giving each player 0 points for an unfinished game in Gaditus's system.
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Knave



Joined: 28 Jun 08
Posts: 258


PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since the points carry over from season to season, they must be zero sum, or there would be point inflation, and new people would take too long to settle in at their "true" level.

And, when I lose, I should get negative points, as a stark reminder that I didn't play to the best of my ability in that season.
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mdp



Joined: 14 Nov 05
Posts: 22

Location: Wichita

PostPosted: Mon Jul 06, 2009 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knave wrote:
Since the points carry over from season to season, they must be zero sum, or there would be point inflation, and new people would take too long to settle in at their "true" level.

And, when I lose, I should get negative points, as a stark reminder that I didn't play to the best of my ability in that season.


First, let me just say, that I don't really care what system is used. I'm just arguing for the sake of arguing Cool

But, how is that different than the current system? Right now, if my "true" level is Division 3 it'll take me 6 promotions to get there, which is 6 seasons right? So it's not like I settle right in.

At a 20% reduction per season a point earned this season has a "half life" of about 3 seasons. That means if I scored the expected 35 points over 5 games, then after 3 seasons that would be worth about 18 points, and after 6 seasons about 9 points.

So, let's do a test. Let's say Bob is a "below average" Amun-Re player. He scores 30 points per season and starts in season 1. And Alice is an "above average" Amun-Re player who scores an average of 40 points per season (35 points being the "expected" score over 5 games for a perfectly average player with triangular scoring). Each have their carry over score decayed by 20%. BUT, let's say that Bob starts in season 1 and Alice starts in season 7. How long will it take Alice to pass Bob?


Season, Bob, Alice
1, 30, -
2, 54, -
3, 73, -
4, 89, -
5, 101, -
6, 111, -
7, 119, 40
8, 125, 72
9, 130, 98
10, 134, 118
11, 137, 134
12, 140, 148

So, it takes 6 seasons of playing for Alice to catch and pass Bob in the standings. Bob asymtotically approaches 150 points. That's the most he can have unless he raises his average. Alice approaches 160. If the decay factor is upped to 25% then Alice catches Bob in 5 seasons.

Under Gaditus's system Alice will be seeded ahead of Bob after her first season, because she will have positive points, but Bob's will be negative. It'll look like this: (where Bob averages -5 and Alice averages 5)

Season, Bob, Alice
1, -5, -
2, -9, -
3, -12, -
4, -15, -
5, -17, -
6, -18, -
7, -20, 5
8, -21, 9
9, -22, 12
10, -22, 18
11, -23, 17
12, -23, 18

Bob approaches -25 and Alice approaches 25.

So, I guess, really, it all depends on what Gaditus wants his league to look like. The only weird thing in Gaditus's system is if Bob were to skip, say, season 6, then his score would INCREASE by 3 points (because 0 is higher than what he normally scores).
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smlait



Joined: 16 Jul 06
Posts: 392

Location: alberta, canada

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mdp wrote:
Under Gaditus's system Alice will be seeded ahead of Bob after her first season, because she will have positive points, but Bob's will be negative. It'll look like this: (where Bob averages -5 and Alice averages 5)


Only if Bob started in the bottom division. Recall that everyone already in a division gets 20*number-of-divisions-below-them points to start. So, if Bob started in Division 4 of 10, he'd get 120 points to start with and those would get lower as each season "awarded" him negative points. Alice, not being grandfathered in, starts with 0 points and has to earn her way up. If Bob started in the bottom division and is still losing then he deserves to be ranked lower than her after her first season.
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mdp



Joined: 14 Nov 05
Posts: 22

Location: Wichita

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

smlait wrote:

Only if Bob started in the bottom division. Recall that everyone already in a division gets 20*number-of-divisions-below-them points to start. So, if Bob started in Division 4 of 10, he'd get 120 points to start with and those would get lower as each season "awarded" him negative points. Alice, not being grandfathered in, starts with 0 points and has to earn her way up. If Bob started in the bottom division and is still losing then he deserves to be ranked lower than her after her first season.


That's true, I was neglecting that part. But, after that all washes out, then with this system it's equivalent to a new player entering in division 4 or 5. You can't put a new player in the bottom division unless you start them out with -50 (or whatever the bottom division settles out at) because, almost regardless of their performance, they'll shoot up in the ratings in the next season (because, fundamentally they started off with 0 points, which is middle of the road).
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mdp



Joined: 14 Nov 05
Posts: 22

Location: Wichita

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I guess I would suggest taking the data from the seasons that have already been run, and retroactively applying this scoring scheme and see how it turns out. See if that's how you want the league to behave.
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freduk



Joined: 18 Jan 06
Posts: 433

Location: Bristol, UK

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 6:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My head hurts.

Hey Gaditus, just tell me which games to join each season and I'm happy! Very Happy
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Gaditus



Joined: 05 Feb 07
Posts: 1924

Location: Canterbury, UK

PostPosted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mdp wrote:
I guess I would suggest taking the data from the seasons that have already been run, and retroactively applying this scoring scheme and see how it turns out. See if that's how you want the league to behave.


I have worked out how the divisions would have been if the new scoring system had applied from season one.

1 jbrier 1 0
1 Sacarino 1 0
1 Kanga 1 0
1 Alexfrog 1 0
1 efreeman 2 -1
1 Gaditus 2 -1
1 Vinny 2 -1
1 bearsfan 2 -1
2 Defdamesdompi 1 1
2 Deden 1 1
2 Koert 2 0
2 mongo 3 -1
2 domster 3 -1
2 daveszum 4 -2
2 mHabes 4 -2
2 Montu 5 -3
3 Haimke 1 2
3 kwojtasz 3 0
3 thatchergreg 3 0
3 andyd 3 0
3 Beast 4 -1
3 Greven 4 -1
3 Pompkin 5 -2
3 WillyC3 6 -3
4 Aran 1 3
4 EzeBig 2 2
4 Coyotek4 3 1
4 Epworthian 4 0
4 HighwayStar 4 0
4 DariusvanDuyn 5 -1
4 pkwolf54 7 -3
4 Laurion 4 0
5 NAB 2 3
5 NoMoreCheese 3 2
5 Maccheek 5 0
5 grizzlyman 5 0
5 Tzar-T 6 -1
5 Dobinator 7 -2
5 arkibet 6 -1
5 freduk 7 -2
6 ratpfink 2 4
6 matrix 4 2
6 Spleen 5 1
6 StanislavTikal 5 1
6 kxw 6 0
6 t_o_m9 6 0
6 kekeweb 7 -1
6 rseulow 8 -2
7 mdp 3 4
7 tphon 6 1
7 JM 7 0
7 swok 7 0
7 Coach 7 0
7 mooka 8 -1
7 TMJJS 8 -1
7 Payton3434 8 -1
7 surfitch 8 -1
8 toutoune 5 3
8 MacS 6 2
8 SaulPum 6 2
8 dawnuk 7 1
8 yahkeh 7 1
8 BryJones 8 0
8 Ace 9 -1
8 bockman 9 -1
8 Carmilla 9 -1
9 jmucchiello 8 1
9 pskrabut 8 1
9 Richard 8 1
9 JonWaggett 9 0
9 ats2630 9 0
9 Sgath 9 0
9 westptr 9 0
9 bop517 9 0
9 AdriaanPieters 9 0


The number before the name is current division (in season four), the numbers after are current division under new basis and difference between the two.

The biggest differences are for Aran, ratpfink, mdp and toutoune who would have moved up significantly because of good game winning performances in season three.

I also looked at the effect of changing the scoring to one of the tables suggested by Knave, but in practice it had little overall effect (a handful of players moved up/down one division).

I suspect that the new system will mean that there is a bit more movement between divisions and the odd player will move up a long way after an exceptional performance in a lowish division. Slightly more of a change round in the divisions is probably not a bad thing in practice.

I did consider a triangular scoring method (and indeed use such a method in my multi challenge tournaments) but decided to give a 1st place even more of a points bonus, as this was how the original scoring system worked.
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Wildfire2099



Joined: 20 Aug 07
Posts: 122


PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, Gadtius mentioned he wasn't totally happy with the player movement oin the scoring system, so I thought I'd re-open the discusion.

I'm actually a little surprised it's not working as he hoped, I would have thought the 20% degradation would prevent the division separating too much, but it seems they are heading in that direction.

What scores were reset at the beginning of each season slightly, based on your relative position? For instance, lets say the bottom guy in division 1 has 600 points, and the top guy in the 2nd division has 560. The gap could be reduced to 20 by dropping everyone's points in the 1st division by 3.3%That way the relative strengths of the players is still maintained, but the divisions are all separated equally, or perhaps just kept close, depending on what Gadtius is looking for.
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jbrier



Joined: 31 Oct 05
Posts: 125

Location: Miami, FL

PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wait, so the problem is that there ISN'T enough mobility between divisions? I didn't look closely, but on the surface it seemed there was A LOT of mobility; in particular, I saw players jump 3-5 Divisions who managed to rack up a lot of wins, including several players who rocketed into Div. 1. Compare to someone in Div. 2 who (presumably) faces much harder competition, and now has a harder time getting into Div. 1. He will consistently see players in lower Divisions that are able to win more decisively pass him by.

I don't have major issues with the new system. Aside from this little (very self-centered) quibble, I do like the potential to move up several divisions if you really deserve to be there: I have a friend who just joined last season and he was able to jump from Div. 9 to Div. 4, which is probably closer to where he belongs.

I think it just comes down to getting the math right, more so than changing anything fundamentally.
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Gaditus



Joined: 05 Feb 07
Posts: 1924

Location: Canterbury, UK

PostPosted: Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Certainly the new system allows players to move up a large number of divisions quickly (and the small winning the division bonus exacerbates this). I don't have a problem with this; it should help players reach their 'level' more quickly.

My concern is that the top division (and I suppose the bottom division) may become too difficult to get out of once a certain number of points have been amassed. This means the top division players will end up playing the same opponents over and over again.

I suppose the questions are:

is this a problem at all?

and if so how best to deal with it.

It may be that the latest season (in the 4 player league) is an oddity rather than the rule. Certainly the 3 and 5 player leagues do not have currently have that problem.
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