SpielByWeb

[sedge]

Well,

we all know it sucks going 4th in Tikal (standard random tile draw variant). What I wanted to know is, just how badly does it suck?

So, I thought I may try to make a comparison. That way, when I lost from going last I could say "But Ah-ha! I got 98 points, and you, the winner only got 102, and knowing that the average score of someone going last is 0.9 times the score of the 1st player, that makes my score according to the Sedge Standardised Scaling Converter 109 so I can claim a moral victory!" and make myself feel better about myself

Now I know the scores vary a great deal, and will also be influenced by individual player styles etc, however I was hoping that after completing 50 4-players games this would be a big enough sample size and I was hoping for some meaningful comparison.

I was expecting (based on nothing in particular) for 1st player to win something like 40% of the games, 2nd 30%, 3rd 20% and 4th 10%. Probably not such a marked difference, but somewhere around that ball park.

I was also expecting something along the lines of average scores being:

1st: 105
2nd: 100
3rd: 95
4th: 90

Again, probably not so exaggerated as this, but probably not too far off.

Now I started SBWing at the end of last year and have been going fairly hard at it since that time. The honeymoon has slightly worn off so it may be a while before I can post the results after 100 games, but I'll get around to it when I can.

So what can be read into the results of the 50 games I've played in? Well, a little disappointingly and a little surprisingly, not too much actually. For what it's worth, check it out:

Games won:

1st: 22% (11/50)
2nd: 38% (19/50)
3rd: 28% (14/50)
4th: 12% (6/50)

Average scores:

1st: 90.9
2nd: 93.6
3rd: 91.7
4th: 90.1

With an everage winning score of 107.3

So, a little to my surprise, the average scores were a lot closer than I expected. But yeah, it definitely does suck going last.

Food for thought......

[slith]

That's a very well thought out article, Sedge.

I find it surprising that the average winning score is 107.3 with the average score for the person starting in second place being 93.6, yet the person starting in 2nd spot winning 38% of games. Can you tell me the average losing score?

[sedge]

I said the "everage" score was 107.3, not the "average"

I guess there must be a fairly large standard deviation. But I didn't do any of that because even if I did it, it's been too long and I think I've forgotten what it all means anyway

OK, and as requested I just added in a new column, crunched some numbers and tadaaa! The average losing score is 74.4.

[sig titan]

Incredible..that's all I can say. Clearly, you have toooooo much time on your hands. But I too, have found that it is difficult to start the game last. However, I have also seen what a huge disadvantage it is to be the last person in any scoring round.
_________________
All warfare is based on deception. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.
- Sun Tzu, the Art of War

[freduk]

ah, but you need to make allowances for the experience (no of games played) and skill level (% wins) for each player in each position of each game. For instance, over the 50 games, what percentage has the most skillful player been placed in the second spot?

Please feel free to come back in September with more stats!

(I am only joking... )

[Bogey]

It's no suprise that the 4th player wins the fewest. Just look at Tiki's. Often the last person will get one, but they'll be long gone by the 2nd round.

And yes, my opinions are swayed by my not winning the Tikal tournament (I was 4th player.) LOL

[freduk]

Out of interest, I've just looked at the 20 4-player games I've completed. The winning seats in those games were 6-4-6-5 (yes, there was a tie). This shows conclusively that playing second is the worst position!
Actually, what I think it shows is that there is a lot more to this game than simple seating positions.
It also shows me that I haven't yet won any of my games from the 4th seat! (2-3-2-0) so there again, going second is best.

Hang on, I'm confused.

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[elba1]

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[elba1]

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